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Heidi556

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Heidi556 last won the day on April 14

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  1. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    😂
  2. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    [at]Shamus Sorry I read the thread again now, regarding probability of being selected and graphs, I have some statistics for you, and giving my interpretation of stats from my limited first year statistics module knowledge. The probability of being selected is difficult to determine because there are more selectees and derivatives than there are visas, and this differs every year, understand? Therefore we have to work with historical data. From the Diversity visa program statistics page https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/diversity-visa-program-entry/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html, I get the following for DV2018: Qualified global entries 14 692 258, Selectees approximately 115 968 (they say approx. and applicants not selectees, I’m assuming selectees), Entries chargeability South Africa received 28 775, Selectees chargeability South Africa 500. Therefore looking back, for DV2018 the probability of being selected is P(Selected) = 115 968 / 14 692 258 = 0.00789 = 0.789% = once in 126.69 years = 0.789 times in 100 years. For chargeability South Africa, the probability of a selectee being selected from the pool of South Africa chargeability entries = P(Selected | given South Africa) = 500 / 28 775 = 0.017376 = 1.7376%. That is not too bad, that is once in 57.55 years, or 1.7376 times in 100 years. If you take it further, like you said year 1 of not selected, and year 2 of not selected and so on, it becomes very complex and surprising results come out. Because bear with me, for example if you enter at any time, your probability of being selected is always still P(Selected) = 1 / (amount of global entries). That is always the case. It does not increase and is not a paradox, it is the same as ‘Gambler’s fallacy’ where a gambler thinks if he plays another hand or keeps on playing, his chances of winning per hand is higher, it is not the case, every time you gamble the chance of winning is always the same. But! If you analize it further, saying what is the probability of not being selected five times in a row it is something like this P(Notselected2020 | given Notselected2015 and Notselected2016 and Notselected2017 and Notselected2018 and Notselected2019), becomes lower that the probability (of not selected) of a single year. But this does not affect you chances of being selected at any time, it just says “the probability of not being selected for six years in a row is lower than the probability of not being selected at any time). Haha, google gambler’s fallacy, the stuff is quite interesting.
  3. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    Hi Kallas, did you send a request to unlock your DS260? If you did, you have to complete and submit the DS260, and then it has to be processed, and then you can be scheduled for an interview. The processing takes time. So you are waiting for you daughters passport, when are you expecting it, and what is the maximum time it can take? I ask because there are only three months left to have your interview in (Jul, Aug, Sep). If your DS260 is unlocked and not processed, you will not be scheduled for an interview. If I were you, I would call KCC and the consulate, explain that you are waiting for a passport of a newly born child, and unsure when it will arrive. What happens now 😁 while we try to contain the excitement, we check emails (and Entrant Status Check ESC page if you think you miss their emails) for the 2NL, once you have the 2NL you schedule the medical check up, register appointment on consulate website, get all your documents together, and go for the interview. Thanks Oscar, yes I have a fresh passport, and I'll go get a fresh drivers too. Most people here in SA have the new smart ID cards now. Do you need a US proof of residence to open a bank account? AT&T contract and prepaid? Is a POBox a good idea for a new immigrant (if you know where you will settle)?
  4. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    Franette and Kallas, all of our three case numbers is now current, jipee! May bulletin for June interviews is Africa 37200 🙂 From what I gathered, 2NL's gets sent from the 15th to the end of the month, and then interviews are on Tuesday or Thursdays in Johannesburg.
  5. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    1NL = First notification letter, you should print this now, as it disappears later. 2NL = Second notification letter, this can be found at the same website where the 1NL was, and gives your interview appointment details, print this for interview. I was also reading old posts saying nothing is certain untill the visa is in your passport. From what I read from Malamute, and deductions made, it is not certain untill you enter the US and activate your visa. If you have a late interview, and receive your visa in passport close to 30 September, and you passport is stolen, that means it has not been activated yet, and if it is past 30 Sept the consulate cannot issue another visa. Therefore it is very important to keep it safe, and get it activated as soon as possible. Regarding transport, I also gather that a moped is not ideal, risky. I am considering a nice used pick up truck, like a F-150 or F-350. They are huge inside, more space than a Land Cruiser 200. Will help with moving, buying things for your new house, and you can put a camper on the cab (or a dak tent) and tour around.
  6. Heidi556

    Notes to maximise your credit score

    I missed this post by mnctxusa:
  7. Heidi556

    Notes to maximise your credit score

    I am reading much about financial considerations, and your credit score is important. I am studying this from outside, and have no practical experience, as I am preparing to emigrate to the US. Here are some notes I collected regarding managing your credit score, please add and comment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to maximise credit score Three credit reporting companies: Equifax, Experian, Transunion. You are entitled to one free credit report from each of the three above per year. Credit score calculated from credit report. Systems; FICO, VantageScore, … Credit score = A number of 300 – 850, reflection of ability to repay debt. Pay debt on time, every time. Debt ratio: Utilization rate < 30%, < 10% better, < 7% best, do not get close to limit. Old debts: Leave long history old debts (study load) on before paying it off too soon = good history. Get a credit card, secured if needed, fastest way to build score. Score boosting: Experian Boost allows access to other financial information payment history like utilities and phone lines to factor in to your credit score. UltraFICO allows access to your other banking data. Timing of applications: Research likelihood of approval for credit before applying, don’t want to be denied. A hard enquiry can lower score. Vehicle finance: Don’t let them run your ??? Dispute errors on credit report. Pay your credit card twice a month rather than once; two smaller mountains rather than one big one. Make payment reminders; diarize. 35% = Payment history :. Pay on time continuously. 30% = Amount owed :. Keen debt ratio’s low. 15% = Length of credit history. 10% = Number of credit accounts held or applied for. 10% = Mix of type of credit (mortgage, credit card, installments). Sources: https://www.bankrate.com/finance/debt/7-simple-ways-improve-credit-score-1.aspx https://www.annualcreditreport.com/yourRights.action https://www.myfico.com/credit-education/improve-your-credit-score https://www.bills.com/credit/credit-score/minimum-credit-score
  8. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    So on the KCC email requesting documents, one of the documents is Military records, so I made a pdf saying I never served in any military, signed it. Have you emailed KCC you docs, or received an email request from them? Good thing you have marriage and birth certificates done, I'm sure the Police clearance will be quicker than 12 weeks, mine 6 weeks. I think two photos for medical, two for interview, better to get more. 1NL = the page that says "You have been selected for further processing..." print that page. 2NL replaces that page when you check and is the interview appointment details.
  9. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    I am definitely an over-planner, but this is a life changing opportunity, so I am putting lots of effort in. But Franette, I think the next bulletin may be very close to your case number hey! Regarding your pup (what breed?), last year a girl from Jhb went through the same DV emigration, also with a dog (a Pomeranian) they are pretty small. She did lots of research and talking with the different airlines, and she is in Florida now with their pup. She has a youtube channel www.youtube.com/c/stephsspace I think you find it valuable.
  10. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    I am so thankful for the answers and help. Managed to talk to a forum member who emigrated and is now living in Hawaii, all thanks to this forum. And did watch some House Hunters set in Hawaii... sjoe $$$. Where did you go SJ272? Two weeks to go for the next bulletin. How is you prep going Franette? On my side, I have to go take fresh photos for the medical and interview, get bank statements and other financials, and make copies of everything I'm taking to the interview. Then when I receive 2NL, confirm the appointment on consulate (not embassy) website, do medical. That's it. I have gone through the documents list, checklists, links to other lists et cetera and have; Birth certificate unabridged, Police clearance new and old, DS-260 confirmation page and completed page, Military records signed no records, Bank statements, Property valuation, Share certificates, 1NL, Matric certificate, Degree, Work experience proof appointment certificates, Passports old ones too. Hope this helps someone. Through the past weekend, I might have read every thread on this forum, haha. I see and from SJ272's advice above, that the social security card may take a while to get. Planning on booking an Airbnb for the first week or so, catch some waves on Oahu, wait for the card, open a bank account, get a month or so rental, go to DMV for drivers, get a local phone. 🙂 I have a farm in SA, and will be back and fourth, so will keep a close eye on not "abandoning my permanent residence" in the US. I have read the many threads on the topic. I have a business to run in SA, so will spend four months of the year in SA, and the balance in Hawaii. Also want to buy a house soon, so that I can prove my primary residence is in the US. Not planning on spending more than 6 months abroad (abroad from US), and so fulfilling the 30 months over 5 years. Can't wait 😄
  11. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    Hi Franette, yes don’t stress about not receiving an email request. When you email the documents, KCC auto replies with a ‘received processing’ email, and then a ‘complete or incomplete’ email a few days later. I applied for a fresh SAPS police clearance certificate, and that took six weeks. I do pecan nuts and livestock (bonsmara and black angus), so Texas sounds like a good fit. Also interested in intensive ag, like greenhouse tomatoes, therefore Hawaii. I have read the other topics in the forum of social security cards, bank accounts, drivers, but in what order can I do these, and what do you need before you can get the next? Example: 1. Social security card 2. Bank accounts, and secured credit card 3. Rental address 4. Drivers licence 5. Credit history and score 6. Buy a car, I need a F350 in my life. 7. ? Thanks for the help!
  12. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    Also, if your case is close to becoming current, like yours, you should send through the documents without waiting for an email requesting them.
  13. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    Hi Franette. Good thing you asked. There is a new procedure, and they reflected these changes in the official instructions website https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/diversity-visa-program-entry/diversity-visa-if-you-are-selected/diversity-visa-prepare-supporting-documents.html. There is blog that is busy and up to date http://britsimonsays.com/new-document-submission-procedure-update/, and there they also discuss the new document procedure. It is very important that you do this, otherwise you will not get an interview date. They ask you to scan and email KCC the following; passports biodata page, birth certificates, millitary records, police clearance certificates. With the pace picking up, if I were you I will definitely apply for police clearances now (if you read the detail, you can submit documents and proof from SAPS that you applied for a clearance certificate). Yes, I received an email from KCC in January asking for the documents. So good to hear of fellow South Africans in the same boat! How are your preperations going? And what state are you looking at? If everything goes well, I am going to Hawaii and Texas in October to have a look, looking for a small ranch as they call it haha! (I am into farming)
  14. Heidi556

    DV-2019

    Yeah, the historical data can only give a very rough estimation of future case progression. I did not take in to consideration such changes as ineligibility. Thanks for the answers. I have a Canadian tourist visa for that. There is a new visa bulletin out, and a nice jump for Africa to 24500 🙂
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